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Thread: 12/08 Episode 13 Discussion - "Not Sure Where I Stand"

  1. #1

    12/08 Episode 13 Discussion - "Not Sure Where I Stand"

    ONE CASTAWAY MUST CHOOSE BETWEEN TWO ALLIANCES IN ORDER TO SECURE THEIR PLACE IN THE GAME, ON "SURVIVOR: NICARAGUA," WEDNESDAY, DEC. 8

    "Not Sure Where I Stand" - A castaway is left questioning alliances after a broken promise leaves them out in the cold, on SURVIVOR: NICARAGUA, Wednesday, Dec. 8 (8:00-9:00 PM ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.


    BTW, what's CBS channel in TVUPlayer? Or any other live stream?
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  2. #2
    This episode was, erm... weird. The whole thing with telling Benry they were voting Fabio, just so they could vote Benry was totally unnecessary. There was no advantage to it, it was just sloppy and weird.

    I mean, the four of them could have EASILY told Benry they were voting for him, and then done just that. Tricking him didn't do anything...

  3. #3
    I love when the editors blindside us--I was saying my goodbyes to Fabio and I literally cheered when the first Benry vote popped up.

    I think that there are absolute parallels between Sash and Russell, in that Sash likes to overmanipulate just to show that he can do it--while his split vote maneuver was impressive, it was needless. The second he had immunity, he could have effectively told Benry straight up that he was going home and Benry would have been powerless to stop him. This is just building up resentment against Sash on the jury. I felt similarly when Sash told Jane he couldn't backstab his second mother--everyone is aware you'd need to have a massive death wish to go to the final tribal with Jane, and Sash would NEVER let it happen. Calling her his second mom builds trust now, yeah... but come the final, if she is on the jury and Sash is in the finals, how do you think good and moral Jane will respond to a player who slit his mother's throat?

    I continue to believe that Holly and Fabio have the best shots at winning this. I think Fabio has had the right idea about "playing cool," but it was a near miss for him at the last vote and I think this will open his eyes up to the fact that they're at the point now where he has to play a little more actively if he wants to survive.

    You know who can't win? Chase. Chase is an idiot. It's a shame hotness doesn't equal intellect because if that were the case he'd be one of the best Survivor players ever, but he plays waaaay too hard with his heart. He might get friendship votes from players like Nay, Purps and Jane, but Alina, Marty, Brenda, and Sash would never reward his fickle, emotionally driven gameplay. Dan also can't win but I think for sure he can make the finals. It's already been discussed at length that Jane would win in the finals, but it's unclear if she can make them.

    I'd also like to point out that for the first time since the beginning of the game, the numbers of the original tribes are even--three LaFlor and three Espada left.

  4. #4
    Okay so I know like an hour ago I said Fabio needs to be a little more active, but upon thinking it over more I've noticed the fridge brilliance of it all--another strike against Benry over Fabio is that the other players saw Benry as a much larger strategic threat. It was Benry who tried to cobble a secondary alliance with Sash, Holly and Chase--not Fabio--and that might have just been one of the factors that made the women's alliance decide that of the guys, Benry was the biggest threat. In the voting confessionals, Sash called Benry the best all around player left in the game, and Ponderosa showed that the jury was shocked and upset to see him gone. I don't think editing showed it very well (and they didn't need to because he left pre F3), but it appears Benry's shot at winning was a LOT better than we were lead to believe.

  5. #5
    UGH @ Benry leaving. He was my only hope, along with Holly.

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  6. #6
    RTVG Apprentice Jardin17's Avatar
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    I agree that it was unnecessary but Benry surprisingly doesn't seem as upset about it. I think he took it as a compliment that they thought he was a threat. He said as much in his exit interview.

    What do you guys think of the previews? There are only two episodes left so I'm guessing two people are going home next week. I hope it's Dan (HOW IS HE STILL IN THE GAME?!!) and the other one will probably be Fabio or Sash.

    Right now I'm really rooting for Holly to win this whole thing. Aside from Shoe Gate, I think she has played a really great game and she seems like a nice lady (if a bit loopy at the beginning). My second choice would be Jane and then Fabio. Not so much Fabio because even though he's charming I think he didn't make enough moves in the game to earn him the million.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Jardin17 View Post
    I agree that it was unnecessary but Benry surprisingly doesn't seem as upset about it. I think he took it as a compliment that they thought he was a threat. He said as much in his exit interview.

    What do you guys think of the previews? There are only two episodes left so I'm guessing two people are going home next week. I hope it's Dan (HOW IS HE STILL IN THE GAME?!!) and the other one will probably be Fabio or Sash.

    Right now I'm really rooting for Holly to win this whole thing. Aside from Shoe Gate, I think she has played a really great game and she seems like a nice lady (if a bit loopy at the beginning). My second choice would be Jane and then Fabio. Not so much Fabio because even though he's charming I think he didn't make enough moves in the game to earn him the million.
    Since there will be a F3, we'll have the group go from 6-5 on next Wednesday's episode, and then the finale on Sunday will have two TCs before the final TC, bringing us to three.

    IIRC, the HII is only good until 6 (which is next week), which means that Sash and Chase should both play their idols, if only because there is no reason not to.

    What goes down next week will all depend if Sash sticks with the ladies. Chase, Holly, and Jane all seem to be kind of stuck on the whole idea of their alliance sticking together, and I don't know if the former two have it in them to cut Jane loose, even though she is a colossal threat. Not only is she a major contender in ANY F3 scenario, she's also won two endurance based immunities, and if that's any indicator, she could surely snag victory at the final IC. Jane is a big threat, but I don't know if there are enough numbers to get rid of her.

    With that being said, I think there are a few scenarios that could unfold:

    1. The four women stick together and Fabio and Dan go next, providing Fabio doesn't win any immunities to gum up the plans.

    1A. Holly and Chase keep their word to Sash and Jane goes at the F4 for being too much of a threat, leaving a Holly, Chase and Sash F3. Chase is seen as being nice, but his paranoid, emotional gameplay probably won't get him votes. Holly's maternal behavior towards many of the players will probably get her votes from the likes of Alina, NaOnka, Benry, and Jane, while Sash's strategy will earn him votes from Brenda and Marty. Fabio doesn't like Holly that much and considers himself close to Sash, and I'd see Dan as more likely to vote for Sash as well. Purple Kelly is the swing vote in this case--she was very close with Sash and had a lot of respect for his game, but she was definitely close to Holly as well (Purple Kelly is the type of player who would be very won over by Holly's general honesty, as well as her reward sacrifice and her attempts to keep Purple Kelly from quitting.) I think Holly has the stronger winners edit so I'd give this one to her.

    1B. Sash is either screwed over from the beginning, or Jane wins the final IC and Sash is voted out. Jane wins.

    2. Jane is decided to be too big of a threat.

    2A. Chase and Holly turn on Jane and help the others blindside her.

    2B. Sash uses his idol on Fabio/Dan with the blowback hitting Jane. I find this one highly unlikely but if everyone THINKS Sash will play the idol he could pull this off.

    Either way, I feel like the scene where Sash talks up his love to Jane was kind of random and didn't have too much to do with this episode. I feel like it is forshadowing that he will attempt to take her out, despite his claims otherwise.

    3. It's also important to consider the fact that there is a big push right now to get rid of physical threats. Fabio is going to carry the target next week, but Chase is going to have that same target on him. Chase would be wise to play the idol when he can, because it will get him through another round, and he could possibly rely on immunity to reach the end. This means that if presented with an opportunity to get rid of Chase, the players left might take it--idk if this is the best move or not, because I don't think Chase can win the final vote.

    4. Sash's untrustworthy nature could lead to a push to eliminate him. Since he'll likely play the idol (or be seen as going to play the idol) I don't think it will happen until the finale.

    I'm sure there are other scenarios but those ones come to my mind right now.

    Lol @ none of this having anything to do with anything... I just love speculating.

  8. #8
    RTVG Apprentice Jardin17's Avatar
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    lol interesting analysis nonetheless!

    I was talking more about what we saw on the "Next time on Survivor clip" they showed after last night's episode: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6E6G2FOc58

    Jeff clearly states that the losers of the challenge "will be taken and executed". That's what made me think that there are only 4 spots (maybe even 3) for that challenge and the 2/3 losers will be voted off on the spot. That way we end up with a final 2 next week instead of a final 3. It would be interesting if they did that.

    Then again, it could just be Jeff screwing with them, but their reactions look pretty real! XD

  9. #9
    i find it hilarious that Jud said that Holly is one of the two weakest stratigests left in the game then she totally pwns him @ tribal about how he is playing (:

    Is Fabio getting a monobrow?... thats attractive :\

    TBH, i'm ready for this season to be over, the ending has been less than good for me. While pre-merge was ****ing amazing.

  10. #10
    Jud doesn't need to scramble to stay in the game, take that Brenda! (jk )

    I swear (even though I like Jud and Holly), if you saw the season in reverse order this could be an amazing season, especially with Wendy goddess winning .

    I do like that most of the players are in the gray area of morality. No one is a hero and no one is a villain, they are all people :]

  11. #11
    Chase seems pretty annoying heroic. He turned on Brenda, but he told her he was doing it.

  12. #12
    I download yesterday, but the file is too big, that make the audio come before the footage, so I need to re download another one.

    I have a question, why Chase dig the ring so fast and look like very easily? And I also surprised that Chase had enjoy the reward, but he didn't even make it into the second round of IC. And I thought Jane would going home, but she didn't even get any vote. Poor Benry. I can't see you in finale.

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    Fabio, please win next challenge.
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  13. #13
    TBH I am actually loving this season... miles better than Samoa. I love a season that keeps you on your toes and I think the fact that the final six is so unexpected is a good thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by OkashiM View Post
    Jud doesn't need to scramble to stay in the game, take that Brenda! (jk )

    I swear (even though I like Jud and Holly), if you saw the season in reverse order this could be an amazing season, especially with Wendy goddess winning .

    I do like that most of the players are in the gray area of morality. No one is a hero and no one is a villain, they are all people :]
    Have any of you ever read the amazing thread on LTS where they discuss what the seasons would be like with reversed boot orders? They are amazingly hilarious and it's worth a read if you have some spare time.

  14. #14
    This episode was a bit all over the place, I'm glad though that the editors made the elimination unpredictable. I really thought that Jud would be going home. However, the whole process of having everyone vote differently was unnecessary.

    I have to say that I preferred the earlier stage of the game, which is weird because most great moves happen at the merge. However, pre-merge there were members of both tribes that were bringing it strategically. Shannon's elimination is still probably my favorite elimination of the season. I think that the only people left thinking about the game is Holly and Sash but Sash's personality pulls him down.

    It's becoming clear that Sash is a player that likes to have everything in his control, being the swing vote did that for him this episode. He was able to secure a position in the game where he can easily slide over to whichever side he wants to. However, he's also building his own grave because being a swing vote brings its consequences. He promised both alliances loyalty but was forced to go against one. Also, while his talk with Jane was cute, it was also unnecessary because Sash has made it clear he doesn't want Jane in the finale and if he gets his way he'll just have another pissed off jury member.

    OMW @ the way Chase dominated the reward challenge. It was like it was meant for him, it's weird because he didn't do as well the first time he played each challenge . Chase is such a sweet guy and his game is honorable but it also isn't the smartest. Taking both Holly & Jane to the reward could've potentially sealed their fate in the game but they were lucky they could do damage control quick enough.

    I'm really hoping for a Holly win at this point because I feel like she's really had a story arc during the show. She went from being this crazy hoot that wanted to quit day 9 to being argubly the best player left. She's been making a lot of smart moves in the merge while keeping the jury generally happy with her. Everyone in the game has seen her as a mother figure and I think they would be happy to award her with the money.

    Taking out Benry was def the best move for Holly/Jane/Chase because he was an Alina type of character. They didn't have the best position in the game but they were playing hard and would do anything to stay another day in the game. Plus Benry was one of the biggest physical threats left in the game. Hopefully this opens up Jud's eyes because he's been too relaxed in the game. His alliance lost a member, and I think we can all agree they would target him before Dan. Either he wins immunity, or makes something happen because his head is on the chopping block.

  15. #15
    i think fabio and dan would probably be the next ones out.

    unless if fabio wins immunity, then dan would probably be voted out.

    however, if chase/holly/jane were smart...they'd tell Sash that they are voting out Fabio or Dan and really vote his ass off. but they have to becareful. Because he might know and use the immunity idol and could swing the vote and vote off one of the ladies instead.


    this game is so mind boggling!

  16. #16
    I'd like to see Benry shave his beard in Ponderosa, but he didn't.
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