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Thread: 2018 Election Prediction

  1. #1
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    2018 Election Prediction

    2018 Election Prediction


    Think you can predict the outcome of U.S. federal elections this year? On November 6th, 2018, Americans (and/or international hackers) will decide which political party will control levers of power in the federal and state governments.

    If you would like some background about the election, here are the best resources available, to my knowledge:

    FiveThirtyEight
    Sabato's Crystal Ball
    Cook Political Report

    We're doing things a bit differently this year in a way that I hope will streamline the process. Instead of having you predict every election, including the non-competitive ones, I decided to screen out all the races likely to be massive blowouts. Scoring has also been massively simplified. While I am weighting the three sections to be equal (Senate, Governors, and House), within each category, you will get 1 point for a correct answer, and zero points for an incorrect answer, unless otherwise noted). As a result, your final score will be out of 100.

    Finally, I'm collecting your predictions using a google form. I will submit my own predictions, and I've decided that I'll be eligible to win this year (but I probably won't ).

    For your convenience, I've listed the included races here so you can work on your picks before going through the form if you prefer to do it that way. Your final predictions are due by 12:00 PM (noon) E.S.T. on Tuesday, 11/6. You can resubmit as many times as you want until then.

    U.S. Senate


    This year, there are 33 regular Senate elections, as well as two special elections (resulting from resignations). I'm asking you about these:

    Arizona Kyrsten Sinema [D] Martha McSally [R]
    Florida Bill Nelson [D-Incumbent] Rick Scott [R]
    Indiana Joe Donnelly [D-Incumbent] Mike Braun [R]
    Minnesota [Special] Tina Smith [D-Appointed] Karin Housley [R]
    Missouri Claire McCaskill [D-Incumbent] Josh Hawley [R]
    Montana Jon Tester [D-Incumbent] Matt Rosendale [R]
    Nevada Jacky Rosen [D] Dean Heller [R-Incumbent]
    New Jersey Bob Menendez [D-Incumbent] Bob Hugin [R]
    North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp [D-Incumbent] Kevin Cramer [R]
    Ohio Sherrod Brown [D-Incumbent] Jim Renacci [R]
    Tennessee Phil Bredesen [D] Marsha Blackburn [R]
    Texas Beto O'Rourke [D] Ted Cruz [R-Incumbent]
    West Virginia Joe Manchin [D-Incumbent] Patrick Morrisey [R]
    Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin [D-Incumbent] Leah Vukmir [R]

    Bonus Questions:

    Considering all Senate races [except the Mississippi special election, but including ones not listed here], which winning senate candidate will win with the lowest percentage of the vote? [Note: This is not the same thing as the closest margin of victory, although usually it is. For example, a 51-49 result is closer than a 45-40-5 result, but 45 is a lower percentage of the vote. Basically, this question asks which candidate can have the worst result while still somehow winning.]

    Overall, which party will win control of the Senate? [Note: in the event of a 50-50 tie, Republicans will prevail due to the Vice President casting tiebreaking votes in the Senate. However, it's possible there will be an ambiguous result due to the Mississippi special election, if Democrats win 50, Republicans win 49, and that race goes to a runoff election a few weeks later.]

    Which Senate election is the "tipping point"? That is to say, if you line them up in order of most Republican-leaning to most Democratic-leaning by margin of victory, which state provides the 51st seat determining the majority? (Weird cases: In the event that you think the outcome will be the unclear D-50, R-49, put "Mississippi Special Election". If you think that MS-Special won't go to a runoff, resulting in a 50-50 tie, put "Vice President Mike Pence")

    Governors


    This year, there are 36 states holding regularly scheduled gubernatorial elections. These races tend to diverge from federal/national politics as local issues are more important here. I'm asking about these races:

    Alaska Mark Begich [D] Mike Dunleavy [R]
    Arizona David Garcia [D] Doug Ducey [R-Incumbent]
    Colorado Jared Polis [D] Walker Stapleton [R]
    Connecticut Ned Lamont [D] Bob Stefanowski [R]
    Florida Andrew Gillum [D] Ron DeSantis [R]
    Georgia Stacey Abrams [D] Brian Kemp [R]
    Illinois JB Pritzker [D] Bruce Rauner [R-Incumbent]
    Iowa Fred Hubbell [D] Kim Reynolds [R-Incumbent]
    Kansas Laura Kelly [D] Kris Kobach [R]
    Maine Janet Mills [D] Shawn Moody [R]
    Michigan Gretchen Whitmer [D] Bill Schuette [R]
    Minnesota Tim Walz [D] Jeff Johnson [R]
    Nevada Steve Sisolak [D] Adam Laxalt [R]
    New Hampshire Molly Kelly [D] Chris Sununu [R-Incumbent]
    New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham [D] Steve Pearce [R]
    Ohio Richard Cordray [D] Mike DeWine [R]
    Oklahoma Drew Edmondson [D] Kevin Stitt [R]
    Oregon Kate Brown [D-Incumbent] Knute Buehler [R]
    Rhode Island Gina Raimondo [D-Incumbent] Allan Fung [R]
    South Dakota Billie Sutton [D] Kristi Noem [R]
    Wisconsin Tony Evers [D] Scott Walker [R-Incumbent]

    Bonus Question:

    Considering all Governor races [including ones not listed here], which winning gubernatorial candidate will win with the lowest percentage of the vote? [Note: This is not the same thing as the closest margin of victory, although usually it is. For example, a 51-49 result is closer than a 45-40-5 result, but 45 is a lower percentage of the vote and would be the correct answer here. Basically, this question asks which candidate can have the worst result while still somehow winning.]

    House


    There are 435 House elections. There's probably around 100 that are competitive, so I just arbitrarily picked 34 of these that are interesting either due to scandals or because they're likely to be close. It's hard to tell for sure in advance which races will be the most interesting, so I just did my best here.

    AK-AL Alyse Galvin [D] Don Young [R-Incumbent]
    CA-39 Gil Cisneros [D] Young Kim [R]
    CA-48 Harley Rouda [D] Dana Rohrabacher [R-Incumbent]
    CA-50 Ammar Campa-Najjar [D] Duncan Hunter [R-Incumbent]
    CO-06 Jason Crow [D] Mike Coffman [R-Incumbent]
    FL-15 Kristen Carlson [D] Ross Spano [R]
    FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [D] Carlos Curbelo [R-Incumbent]
    FL-27 Donna Shalala [D] Maria Salazar [R]
    GA-06 Lucy McBath [D] Karen Handel [R-Incumbent]
    IL-06 Sean Casten [D] Peter Roskan [R-Incumbent]
    KS-02 Paul Davis [D] Steve Watkins [R]
    KY-06 Amy McGrath [D] Andy Barr [R-Incumbent]
    ME-02 Jared Golden [D] Bruce Poliquin [R-Incumbent]
    MI-07 Gretchen Driskill [D] Tim Walberg [R-incumbent]
    MN-01 Dan Feehan [D] Jim Hagedorn [R]
    MN-02 Angie Craig [D] Jason Lewis [R-Incumbent]
    MN-03 Dean Phillips [D] Erik Paulsen [R-Incumbent]
    MN-08 Joe Radinovich [D] Pete Stauber [R]
    MT-AL Kathleen Williams [D] Greg Gianforte [R-Incumbent]
    NE-02 Kara Eastman [D] Don Bacon [R-Incumbent]
    NV-03 Susie Lee [D] Danny Tarkanian [R]
    NV-04 Steven Horsford [D] Cresent Hardy [R]
    NJ-03 Andy Kim [D] Tom MacArthur [R-Incumbent]
    NM-02 Xochitl Torres Small [D] Yvette Herrell [R]
    NY-22 Anthony Brindisi [D] Claudia Tenney [R-Incumbent]
    NY-27 Nate McMurray [D] Chris Collins [R-Incumbent]
    NC-09 Dan McReady [D] Mark Harris [R]
    PA-01 Scott Wallace [D] Brian Fitzpatrick [R-Incumbent]
    TX-07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher [D] John Culberson [R-Incumbent]
    TX-32 Collin Allred [D] Pete Sessions [R-Incumbent]
    UT-04 Ben McAdams [D] Mia Love [R-Incumbent]
    VA-05 Leslie Cockburn [D] Denver Riggleman [R]
    VA-07 Abigail Spanberger [D] Dave Brat [R-Incumbent]
    WA-08 Kim Schrier [D] Dino Rossi [R]

    Bonus Question:

    How many house seats (out of 435) will Democrats win? You'll get 10 points if you are exactly correct, losing one point for each number off you are. If you are more than 10 seats off, you'll score zero.

    That's all there is to it! Let me know if you have any questions.

  2. #2
    #Illuminati eagle2ch's Avatar
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  3. #3
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    eagle2ch did that

  4. #4
    Omg how did I miss this

    I would have won so much money betting on Miss Skinnyma

  5. #5
    #Illuminati eagle2ch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Estquer View Post


    eagle2ch did that



  6. #6
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    2018 Election Prediction Results


    This year we had only three participants (including myself ). So that's awkward. I really should have posted this earlier in the cycle but I was busy.

    Anyway, let's start. As you'll recall, each of the overall categories (Senate, Governors, and House) are weighted to be a third of the total points. A perfect score in each section would be 33.33. Hopefully this doesn't go to a recount.

    Let's start with Senate predictions:

    eagle2ch Estquer VanityEgo
    Arizona Kyrsten Sinema [D] Kyrsten Sinema [D] Kyrsten Sinema [D]
    Minnesota [Special Election] Tina Smith [D-Appointed] Tina Smith [D-Appointed] Tina Smith [D-Appointed]
    Montana Jon Tester [D-Incumbent] Jon Tester [D-Incumbent] Jon Tester [D-Incumbent]
    Nevada Jacky Rosen [D] Jacky Rosen [D] Jacky Rosen [D]
    New Jersey Bob Menendez [D-Incumbent] Bob Menendez [D-Incumbent] Bob Menendez [D-Incumbent]
    Ohio Sherrod Brown [D-Incumbent] Sherrod Brown [D-Incumbent] Sherrod Brown [D-Incumbent]
    West Virginia Joe Manchin [D-Incumbent] Joe Manchin [D-Incumbent] Joe Manchin [D-Incumbent]
    Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin [D-Incumbent] Tammy Baldwin [D-Incumbent] Tammy Baldwin [D-Incumbent]
    Florida Bill Nelson [D-Incumbent] Bill Nelson [D-Incumbent] Bill Nelson [D-Incumbent]
    Indiana Joe Donnelly [D-Incumbent] Joe Donnelly [D-Incumbent] Joe Donnelly [D-Incumbent]
    Texas Beto O'Rourke [D] Beto O'Rourke [D] Beto O'Rourke [D]
    Missouri Claire McCaskill [D-Incumbent] Josh Hawley [R] Claire McCaskill [D-Incumbent]
    North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp [D-Incumbent] Kevin Cramer [R] Heidi Heitkamp [D-Incumbent]
    Tennessee Phil Bredesen [D] Marsha Blackburn [R] Marsha Blackburn [R]
    Lowest Winner Beto O'Rourke Joe Donnelly Beto O'Rourke
    Control of Senate Democratic Party Republican Party Republican Party
    Tipping Point Arizona Missouri Texas

    The worst performing winning candidate ended up being Joe Manchin (D-WV), who only won with 49.5% of the vote. Ironically, all of our predictions for this category ended up being losing candidates.

    The tipping point state in the senate elections was Indiana:

    43 Wyoming R +37.0
    44 Utah R +32.2
    45 Nebraska R +19.8
    46 Mississippi R +19.7
    47 North Dakota R +10.89
    48 Tennessee R +10.83
    49 Missouri R +6.03
    50 Indiana R +5.92
    51 Texas R +2.6
    52 Florida R +0.12
    53? MS Runoff TBA

    As you can see, Republicans started with 42 seats already locked in, and won seats in successive order organized by margin. Their 50th seat was Indiana, which along with Vice President Mike Pence (also from Indiana...), provided the majority. Texas, Florida, and (possibly) Mississippi will be bonus seats for this party. To my irritation, my guess of Missouri was a tenth of a point off from being the tipping point seat.

    eagle2ch Estquer VanityEgo
    Senate [Raw] 8 12 10
    Senate [Weighted] 15.68 23.52 19.6

    As you can see, I opened up a small lead with my slightly more accurate Senate predictions. To be fair, though none of us did particularly well in this category.

    eagle2ch Estquer VanityEgo
    Colorado Jared Polis [D] Jared Polis [D] Jared Polis [D]
    Connecticut Ned Lamont [D] Ned Lamont [D] Ned Lamont [D]
    Illinois JB Pritzker [D] JB Pritzker [D] JB Pritzker [D]
    Maine Janet Mills [D] Janet Mills [D] Janet Mills [D]
    Michigan Gretchen Whitmer [D] Gretchen Whitmer [D] Gretchen Whitmer [D]
    Minnesota Tim Walz [D] Tim Walz [D] Tim Walz [D]
    Nevada Steve Sisolak [D] Steve Sisolak [D] Steve Sisolak [D]
    New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham [D] Michelle Lujan Grisham [D] Michelle Lujan Grisham [D]
    Oregon Kate Brown [D-Incumbent] Kate Brown [D-Incumbent] Kate Brown [D-Incumbent]
    Rhode Island Gina Raimondo [D-Incumbent] Gina Raimondo [D-Incumbent] Gina Raimondo [D-Incumbent]
    Wisconsin Tony Evers [D] Tony Evers [D] Tony Evers [D]
    Florida Andrew Gillum [D] Andrew Gillum [D] Andrew Gillum [D]
    Georgia Abrams [Plurality] Abrams [Majority] Abrams [Majority]
    Alaska Mark Begich [D] Mike Dunleavy [R] Mike Dunleavy [R]
    Arizona David Garcia [D] Doug Ducey [R-Incumbent] David Garcia [D]
    Iowa Fred Hubbell [D] Fred Hubbell [D] Kim Reynolds [R-Incumbent]
    Kansas Laura Kelly [D] Kris Kobach [R] Kris Kobach [R]
    New Hampshire Molly Kelly [D] Chris Sununu [R-Incumbent] Chris Sununu [R-Incumbent]
    Ohio Richard Cordray [D] Richard Cordray [D] Mike DeWine [R]
    Oklahoma Drew Edmondson [D] Kevin Stitt [R] Kevin Stitt [R]
    South Dakota Billie Sutton [D] Kristi Noem [R] Billie Sutton [D]
    Lowest Winner David Garcia Kris Kobach Janet Mills

    Again, to my irritation, I was very close with my guess of Kris Kobach. But, evidently I underestimated Kansas; they actually elected his Democratic opponent, Laura Kelly, with only 47.8% of the vote in a trainwreck-y three-way race. Meanwhile, Janet Mills won easily in Maine and David Garcia lost by a wide margin in Arizona. Nonetheless, we all failed to score here.

    eagle2ch Estquer VanityEgo
    Governor [Raw] 12 16 16
    Governors [Weighted] 18.18 24.24 24.24

    We did a little better in this category, but not like... a lot better. VanityEgo and I tied for first here, with eagle2ch's very optimistic picks trailing.

    eagle2ch Estquer VanityEgo
    California 48 Harley Rouda [D] Harley Rouda [D] Harley Rouda [D]
    Colorado 06 Jason Crow [D] Jason Crow [D] Jason Crow [D]
    Florida 26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [D] Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [D] Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [D]
    Georgia 06 Lucy McBath [D] Lucy McBath [D] Lucy McBath [D]
    Illinois 06 Sean Casten [D] Sean Casten [D] Sean Casten [D]
    Maine 02 Jared Golden [D] Jared Golden [D] Jared Golden [D]
    Michigan 08 Elissa Slotkin [D] Elissa Slotkin [D] Elissa Slotkin [D]
    Minnesota 02 Angie Craig [D] Angie Craig [D] Angie Craig [D]
    Minnesota 03 Dean Phillips [D] Dean Phillips [D] Dean Phillips [D]
    New Jersey 03 Andy Kim [D] Andy Kim [D] Andy Kim [D]
    New Mexico 02 Xochitl Torres Small [D] Xochitl Torres Small [D] Xochitl Torres Small [D]
    Nevada 03 Susie Lee [D] Susie Lee [D] Susie Lee [D]
    Texas 07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher [D] Lizzie Pannill Fletcher [D] Lizzie Pannill Fletcher [D]
    Texas 32 Collin Allred [D] Collin Allred [D] Collin Allred [D]
    Virginia 05 Leslie Cockburn [D] Leslie Cockburn [D] Leslie Cockburn [D]
    Virginia 07 Abigail Spanberger [D] Abigail Spanberger [D] Abigail Spanberger [D]
    Washington 08 Kim Schrier [D] Kim Schrier [D] Kim Schrier [D]
    New York 22 Anthony Brindisi [D] Anthony Brindisi [D] Anthony Brindisi [D]
    Utah 04 Ben McAdams [D] Ben McAdams [D] Ben McAdams [D]
    Kentucky 06 Amy McGrath [D] Amy McGrath [D] Amy McGrath [D]
    Michigan 07 Gretchen Driskill [D] Gretchen Driskill [D] Gretchen Driskill [D]
    New York 27 Nate McMurray [D] Nate McMurray [D] Nate McMurray [D]
    Pennsylvania 01 Scott Wallace [D] Scott Wallace [D] Scott Wallace [D]
    Alaska AL Alyse Galvin [D] Don Young [R-Incumbent] Don Young [R-Incumbent]
    California 39 Gil Cisneros [D] Young Kim [R] Gil Cisneros [D]
    California 50 Ammar Campa-Najjar [D] Duncan Hunter [R-Incumbent] Ammar Campa-Najjar [D]
    Florida 15 Kristen Carlson [D] Kristen Carlson [D] Ross Spano [R]
    Florida 27 Donna Shalala [D] Donna Shalala [D] Maria Salazar [R]
    Kansas 02 Paul Davis [D] Paul Davis [D] Steve Watkins [R]
    Minnesota 01 Dan Feehan [D] Jim Hagedorn [R] Dan Feehan [D]
    Minnesota 08 Dan Feehan [D] Pete Stauber [R] Dan Feehan [D]
    Montana At-Large Kathleen Williams [D] Greg Gianforte [R-Incumbent] Kathleen Williams [D]
    Nebraska 02 Kara Eastman [D] Don Bacon [R-Incumbent] Kara Eastman [D]
    Nevada 04 Steven Horsford [D] Steven Horsford [D] Cresent Hardy [R]
    North Carolina 09 Dan McReady [D] Dan McReady [D] Mark Harris [R]
    Total Seats for Dems 240 244 220

    For the total seats, I'm going with 235 as the number (putting CA-21 to the Democratic candidate based on 538's projection because I'm sick of waiting). That's a total gain of +40 for Democrats.

    eagle2ch Estquer VanityEgo
    House [Raw] 20 25 22
    House Margin 5 1 0
    House [Weighted] 18.93 19.69 16.66

    The House Margin points did skew down our scores a bit, but I think we did pretty well overall in this category. Of course, there were many interesting races that didn't make the list but it would have been annoying to contribute any more of them.

    Finally, just for fun, let's look at the tiebreaker question:

    eagle2ch Estquer VanityEgo
    Guess 53.11 48.38 53.27
    Correct Answer 49.08 49.08 49.08
    Error 4.03% 0.70% 4.19%

    It's almost like I had a structural advantage due to my familiarity with the state and in setting the rules of the game...

    So, the final scores are as follows:

    Senate Govs House Total
    Estquer 23.52 24.24 19.69 67.45
    VanityEgo 19.60 24.24 16.66 60.50
    eagle2ch 15.68 18.18 18.93 52.79

    So, uhsorry about the buzzkill of the host winning the game. But hey, at least it isn't as depressing as 2016, right?

    Thank you eagle2ch and VanityEgo for participating! Hopefully next year we can drag back more of our past predictors.

    Until next time...


  7. #7
    Moderator BottleItUp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Estquer View Post


    eagle2ch did that
    America's first witch senator <3

    I hijacked the 2016 version of this and used it at my election party irl but somehow unfortunately missed this thread? I, the host, also won my own game. GJ Est!! RIP Claire McCaskill

  8. #8
    RTVG Idol 1331nj's Avatar
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    Congrats Spencer !

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