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Thread: 2016 Election Prediction

  1. #1
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    2016 Election Prediction

    Think you can predict the outcome of US federal elections this year? On November 8th, Americans will decide which group of dangerously incompetent politicians will represent them and govern them.

    This is the achievement you are competing for:



    Take it or leave it.

    If you would like some background about the election, here are some great resources:

    http://www.270towin.com/
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

    The following long section explains the completely arbitrary scoring system. To summarize: If you make correct predictions, you will get points! If you make crappy predictions, you will not get points.

    The top scorer overall after all the votes have been counted will be declared the winner of the 2016 Election Prediction game. I will make predictions because it's fun, but I will not be eligible to win.

    The categories are:

    • Electoral College
    • Presidential Popular Vote
    • Senate
    • House
    • Governor
    • Bonus Questions

    ELECTORAL COLLEGE SCORING

    For each electoral vote correctly placed, you will receive that many points. For example, if you predicted that Trump (R) wins Oklahoma, and that happens, you will receive 7 points.

    However, correctly calling competitive states is worth more points. Correctly calling “lean” states gives you a x2 multiplier, while correctly calling “tossup” states gives you a x5 multiplier.



    SAFE/LIKELY CLINTON STATES (x1 Multiplier)
    California – 55
    Connecticut – 7
    Delaware – 3
    Hawaii – 4
    Illinois – 20
    Maine (District #1) – 1
    Maryland - 10
    Massachusetts – 11
    New Jersey – 14
    New Mexico – 5
    New York – 29
    Oregon – 7
    Rhode Island – 4
    Vermont – 3
    Washington DC – 3
    Washington – 12


    SAFE/LIKELY TRUMP STATES (x1 Multiplier)
    Alabama – 9
    Arkansas – 6
    Idaho – 4
    Indiana – 11
    Kansas – 6
    Kentucky – 8
    Louisiana – 8
    Mississippi – 6
    Montana – 3
    N. Dakota – 3
    Nebraska (District #1) – 1
    Nebraska (District #3) – 1
    Nebraska (Statewide) – 2
    Oklahoma – 7
    S. Carolina – 9
    S. Dakota – 3
    Tennessee – 11
    Texas – 38
    W. Virginia – 5
    Wyoming – 3


    LEAN CLINTON STATES (x3 Multiplier)
    Colorado – 9
    Maine (Statewide) – 2
    Michigan – 16
    Minnesota – 10
    New Hampshire – 4
    Pennsylvania – 20
    Virginia – 13
    Wisconsin – 10


    LEAN TRUMP STATES (x3 Multiplier)
    Alaska – 3
    Arizona – 11
    Georgia – 16
    Missouri – 10
    Nebraska (District #2) – 1


    TOSSUP STATES (x7 Multiplier)
    Iowa – 6
    Florida – 29
    Maine (District #2) – 1
    N. Carolina – 15
    Nevada – 6
    Ohio – 18
    Utah – 6


    For lean states, if you correctly predict a result opposite of the lean (for example, if you predict a Trump win in Pennsylvania and that result occurs), you will get a +50 bonus for taking a risk that paid off.

    For safe/likely states, if you correctly predict a result opposite of the consensus prediction (for example, if you predict a Clinton win in Idaho and that occurs), you will get a +100 bonus for taking a risk that paid off.

    If you correctly predict the exact number of electoral votes received by each candidate, you will receive a +100 bonus.

    Note that I reserve the right to re-categorize states up to one week before the election. For example, if Clinton or Trump begins to run away with the election over the next month, reclassification may be necessary.

    POPULAR VOTE SCORING

    For the popular vote, all you have to do is predict the Clinton or Trump margin of victory to the nearest hundredth of a percent.


    If you fall within 0.1% of the popular vote margin, you will get a +100 bonus.

    If you fall within 0.5% of the popular vote margin, you will get a +50 bonus.

    If you fall within 1% of the popular vote margin, you will get a +20 bonus.

    If you fall within 2% of the popular vote margin, you will get a +10 bonus.

    If you fall within 5% of the popular vote margin, you will get a +1 bonus.

    Any worse than that, and you don’t get any bonus at all. I mean, really.

    SENATE SCORING

    These seats are divided into the same categories as above. Safe/Likely seats are worth 5 points each. Lean seats are worth 15 points. Toss-up seats are worth 25 Points.

    If you go against a seat's lean to correctly predict the outcome, you will earn a bonus of +30 points for taking a risk that paid off.

    If you go against a safe/likely seat's party to correctly predict the outcome, you will earn a bonus of +75 points for taking a risk that paid off.

    There are a few special cases that are scored differently. (California and Lousiana... see below.)

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D* vs. Glenn-R
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D* vs. Carter-R
    Hawaii: Schatz-D* vs. Carroll-R
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D vs. Szeliga-R
    New York: Schumer-D* vs. Long-R
    Oregon: Wyden-D* vs. Callahan-R
    Vermont: Leahy-D* vs. Milne-R
    Washington: Murray-D* vs. Vance-R


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R* vs. Crumpton-D
    Alaska: Murkowski-R* vs. Miller-L vs. Metcalfe-D
    Arkansas: Boozman-R* vs. Eldridge-D
    Georgia: Isakson-R* vs. Barksdale-D
    Idaho: Crapo-R* vs. Sturgill-D
    Iowa: Grassley-R* vs. Judge-D
    Kansas: Moran-R* vs. Wiesner-D
    Kentucky: Paul-R* vs. Gray-D
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R* vs. Glassheim-D
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R* vs. Workman-D
    S. Carolina: Scott-R* vs. Dixon-D
    S. Dakota: Thune-R* vs. Williams-D
    Utah: Lee-R* vs. Snow-D


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D vs. Johnson-R*
    Illinois: Duckworth-D vs. Kirk-R*


    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R* vs. Kirkpatrick-D
    Florida: Rubio-R* vs. Murphy-D
    Ohio: Portman-R* vs. Strickland-D


    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R vs. Bayh-D
    Missouri: Blunt-R* vs. Kander-D
    N. Carolina: Burr-R* vs. Ross-D
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D vs. Heck-R
    New Hampshire: Ayotte-R* vs. Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: Toomey-R* vs. McGinty-D


    SPECIAL CASES

    California: Harris-D vs. Sanchez-D

    In the California senate primary, two members of the Democratic party (Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez) advanced to the general election. Therefore, there is no opportunity for a Republican upset here. Consensus pundit predictions for this race are "Likely Harris." Therefore this will be scored like a safe/likely Democratic seat (5 points). However, the upset choice is Loretta Sanchez instead of Republican fodder.

    Lousiana (Trainwreck): Billiot-I vs. Boustany-R vs. Campbell-D vs. Cao-R vs. Clements-L vs. Crawford-R vs. Duke-R vs. Edwards-D vs. Fayard-D vs. Fleming-R vs. Gillam-L vs. Hebert-I vs. Kennedy-R vs. Landrieu-D vs. Lang-I vs. Maness-R vs. Marone-I vs. Marsala-R vs. Mendoza-D vs. Patel-R vs. Pellerin-D vs. Taylor-I vs. Wells-I vs. Williams-D

    Due to their absurd election system, Louisiana will be holding an open primary on election day. If any candidate surpasses 50%, s/he will win the seat outright. However, this is an open seat with no incumbent running. As a result, there are twenty-four candidates running for a spot in the top two. (See above.) Given this mess, I will just ask you to pick the two candidates that you think will be in the top two. You will get 5 points per correct answer. Check here for more details about this clusterfuck.

    HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SCORING

    Since there are 435 house elections, there’s no point in predicting individual races. Instead, you will simply state the seat margin of the majority. For example, the current House has a margin of +60 Republican seats.

    If you come within 1 seat of the correct answer, you’ll get +100 points.

    If you come within 3 seats of the correct answer, you’ll get +50 points.

    If you come within 5 seats of the correct answer, you’ll get +20 points.

    If you come within 10 seats of the correct answer, you’ll get +10 points.

    Just to be clear, your prediction is the final margin - you aren't guessing "Democrats will pick up 8 seats" or "Republicans will pick up 12 seats", you're just giving me the final balance of the House after the election.

    GOVERNOR SCORING

    These seats are divided into the same categories as above. Safe/Likely seats are worth 5 points each. Lean seats are worth 15 points. Toss-up seats are worth 25 Points.

    If you go against a seat's lean to correctly predict the outcome, you will earn a bonus of +30 points for taking a risk that paid off.

    If you go against a safe/likely seat's party to correctly predict the outcome, you will earn a bonus of +75 points for taking a risk that paid off.

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D vs. Bonini-R
    Oregon: Brown-D* vs. Pierce-R
    Washington: Inslee-D* vs. Bryant-R


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R vs. Nelson-D
    Utah: Herbert-R* vs. Weinholtz-D


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D* vs. Gianforte-R

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Holcomb-R vs. Gregg-D
    Missouri: Koster-D vs. Greitens-R
    N. Carolina: McCrory-R* vs. Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D vs. Sununu-R
    Vermont: Minter-D vs. Scott-R
    W. Virginia: Justice-D vs. Cole-R vs. Pritt-M


    BONUS QUESTIONS

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation? (Yes/No. 20 Points).
    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).
    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? (Current: 20; 50 points for correct answer).
    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).

    SUBMITTING YOUR PREDICTION

    So, what do you need to do to play?

    • Post your predictions in this thread.
    • You can change any of your predictions up to, let's say, 12:00 PM E.S.T. on Tuesday, November 8th.

    First, use http://www.270towin.com/ to produce the Electoral College map. Screen cap it and remember to choose a winner in all the states/districts.

    Then, answer all the other questions using the form below. For Senate/Governor races, delete the candidate(s) you think will lose and just leave who you think will win.

      Spoiler:  
    ELECTORAL MAP (paste below):

    POPULAR VOTE:

    For the popular vote, all you have to do is predict the Clinton or Trump margin of victory to the nearest hundredth of a percent (example: Trump +0.56% or Clinton +15.13%)


    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D* vs. Glenn-R
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D* vs. Carter-R
    Hawaii: Schatz-D* vs. Carroll-R
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D vs. Szeliga-R
    New York: Schumer-D* vs. Long-R
    Oregon: Wyden-D* vs. Callahan-R
    Vermont: Leahy-D* vs. Milne-R
    Washington: Murray-D* vs. Vance-R

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R* vs. Crumpton-D
    Alaska: Murkowski-R* vs. Metcalfe-D
    Arkansas: Boozman-R* vs. Eldridge-D
    Georgia: Isakson-R* vs. Barksdale-D
    Idaho: Crapo-R* vs. Sturgill-D
    Iowa: Grassley-R* vs. Judge-D
    Kansas: Moran-R* vs. Wiesner-D
    Kentucky: Paul-R* vs. Gray-D
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R* vs. Glassheim-D
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R* vs. Workman-D
    S. Carolina: Scott-R* vs. Dixon-D
    S. Dakota: Thune-R* vs. Williams-D
    Utah: Lee-R* vs. Snow-D

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D vs. Johnson-R*
    Illinois: Duckworth-D vs. Kirk-R*

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R* vs. Kirkpatrick-D
    Florida: Rubio-R* vs. Murphy-D
    Ohio: Portman-R* vs. Strickland-D

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R vs. Bayh-D
    Missouri: Blunt-R* vs. Kander-D
    N. Carolina: Burr-R* vs. Ross-D
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D vs. Heck-R
    New Hampshire: Ayotte-R* vs. Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: Toomey-R* vs. McGinty-D

    CALIFORNIA

    California: Harris-D vs. Sanchez-D

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Lousiana: Billiot-I vs. Boustany-R vs. Campbell-D vs. Cao-R vs. Clements-L vs. Crawford-R vs. Duke-R vs. Edwards-D vs. Fayard-D vs. Fleming-R vs. Gillam-L vs. Hebert-I vs. Kennedy-R vs. Landrieu-D vs. Lang-I vs. Maness-R vs. Marone-I vs. Marsala-R vs. Mendoza-D vs. Patel-R vs. Pellerin-D vs. Taylor-I vs. Wells-I vs. Williams-D

    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin:
    (Example: Republicans +12)

    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D vs. Bonini-R
    Oregon: Brown-D* vs. Pierce-R
    Washington: Inslee-D* vs. Bryant-R

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R vs. Nelson-D
    Utah: Herbert-R* vs. Weinholtz-D

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D* vs. Gianforte-R

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Holcomb-R vs. Gregg-D
    Missouri: Koster-D vs. Greitens-R
    N. Carolina: McCrory-R* vs. Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D vs. Sununu-R
    Vermont: Minter-D vs. Scott-R
    W. Virginia: Justice-D vs. Cole-R vs. Pritt-M

    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation? (Yes/No. 20 Points).
    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).
    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? (Current: 20; 50 points for correct answer).
    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).



    You have over a month to do this, so take your time. Let me know if there's anything I can clear up.
    Last edited by Estquer; 11-09-2016 at 08:06 PM.

  2. #2
    Moderator BottleItUp's Avatar
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    ELECTORAL MAP (paste below):



    POPULAR VOTE: Clinton +8.34%

    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D*
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*
    Hawaii: Schatz-D*
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D*
    Oregon: Wyden-D*
    Vermont: Leahy-D*
    Washington: Murray-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R*
    Alaska: Murkowski-R*
    Arkansas: Boozman-R*
    Georgia: Isakson-R*
    Idaho: Crapo-R*
    Iowa: Grassley-R*
    Kansas: Moran-R*
    Kentucky: Paul-R*
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*
    S. Carolina: Scott-R*
    S. Dakota: Thune-R*
    Utah: Lee-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Duckworth-D

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R*
    Florida: Rubio-R*
    Ohio: Portman-R*

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Bayh-D
    Missouri: Blunt-R
    N. Carolina: Ross-D
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D

    CALIFORNIA

    California: Harris-D

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Lousiana: Boustany-R vs. Campbell-D

    as someone who lives in Louisiana I can confirm that this race is just as much of a trainwreck on the ground as it seems from outside.


    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin: Republicans +14

    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Inslee-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R vs. Nelson-D
    Utah: Herbert-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D*

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Holcomb-R
    Missouri: Koster-D
    N. Carolina: Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Sununu-R
    Vermont: Minter-D
    W. Virginia: Cole-R

    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    1. DC 2. Hawaii 3. Maryland 4. Vermont 5. California

    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    1. NE-3 2. Wyoming 3. West Virginia 4. Oklahoma 5. Alabama

    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    1. Arizona 2. NE-2 3. Georgia 4. Missouri 5. ME-2

    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation? (Yes/No. 20 Points).
    No


    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state). 2 - Arizona & NE-2


    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? (Current: 20; 50 points for correct answer).
    23

    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).
    110

  3. #3
    Moderator BottleItUp's Avatar
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    I think calling the exact makeup electoral college this year is going to be incredibly difficult, if only because of the lack of high quality polling outside of traditional swing states. Usually this wouldn't matter, but this election is shaping up to be a landslide nationally, so as all the usual suspects move further towards Clinton, the question becomes which will be the most conservative state to turn blue? Arizona? Missouri? Texas? Utah?!

    Thankfully, Monmouth has put out high quality polls of Indiana, Missouri and Utah this week. They show a close race with Trump only up 4-6 points in each, and Monmouth is one of the highest-quality pollsters, but even then, we still need more polls: most of these have data from both before and after stories about Trump sexually assaulting women have popped up and his support began to collapse among blue-collar white women. For example, the first days of the Indiana surveys, taken pre-rape allegations, had a result of Trump +7 while the last few days of surveys, after the news broke, had a result of Clinton +2. In mostly white working class states like Missouri and Indiana, Clinton pulling so much as even among blue collar white women (as these new polls show) would be catastrophic for Trump and turn both diversifying states (Arizona, Georgia) and historically democratic working class states (Missouri) into places that could be legitimately contested.

    Basically, the electoral map is far from set in stone, based on whether Trump makes a polling recovery or if his downslide continues among white working-class women. My polling wishlist, for states I'd be afraid to call if it looks like a Clinton landslide:
    Arizona
    ME-2
    NE-2
    Georgia
    Missouri
    Indiana
    Alaska
    Texas
    South Carolina
    Utah
    Kansas
    Montana

    --

    I'm already going to revise some predictions and here's why. A few states this cycle have both competitive gubernatorial AND senate races, as well as the presidential race obviously -- Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri and New Hampshire. Polling in each of these states produces a clear hierarchy of how competitive each of these races is. For example, in New Hampshire, Ayotte (R-senate) has consistently been shown in polling to be running ahead of both Trump (R-presidency) and Sununu (R-governor). It doesn't make sense to predict a Trump victory in New Hampshire while predicting an Ayotte loss, because regardless of the specific numbers, polls have consistently shown Ayotte doing better in the state than Trump, meaning that an Ayotte victory and a Trump loss is far far more likely than the opposite.

    In New Hampshire, the Democratic likelihood of victory is: Clinton > Van Ostern > Hassan
    North Carolina: Cooper > Clinton > Ross
    Indiana: Gregg > Bayh > Clinton
    Missouri: Koster > Kander > Clinton

    With that principle in mind, I'm changing a few gubernatorial predictions:
    Indiana: Gregg-D
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D

  4. #4
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    Okay, I figure I should post my preliminary predictions. I'm also going to update Alaska's senate race to add Joe Miller (Libertarian) since he is outpolling the democrat...

    ELECTORAL MAP (paste below):

      Spoiler:  


    My assumption of what's going to happen next is that it will tighten up to around 2012 levels, then move back toward Clinton to settle somewhere in between 2008/2012. There's just too much time left for the media narrative to be Trump failing until Nov. 8. They have enough time to pretend that it's going to be close again. That being said, my map might be a little too bearish on Clinton's chances.


    POPULAR VOTE:

    Clinton +5.79%


    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D*
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*
    Hawaii: Schatz-D*
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D*
    Oregon: Wyden-D*
    Vermont: Leahy-D*
    Washington: Murray-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R*
    Alaska: Murkowski-R*
    Arkansas: Boozman-R*
    Georgia: Isakson-R*
    Idaho: Crapo-R*
    Iowa: Grassley-R*
    Kansas: Moran-R*
    Kentucky: Paul-R*
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*
    S. Carolina: Scott-R*
    S. Dakota: Thune-R*
    Utah: Lee-R*


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Duckworth-D


    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R*
    Florida: Rubio-R*
    Ohio: Portman-R*


    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Bayh-D
    Missouri: Blunt-R*
    N. Carolina: Ross-D
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D


    CALIFORNIA

    California: Harris-D

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Lousiana: Boustany-R and Kennedy-R

    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin: Republicans +16?

    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Inslee-D*


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R*


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D*

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Holcomb-R
    Missouri: Koster-D
    N. Carolina: Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D
    Vermont: Scott-R
    W. Virginia: Justice-D


    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. DC
    2. Hawaii
    3. Vermont
    4. California
    5. Maryland


    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. NE-03
    2. Wyoming
    3. Kentucky
    4. Alabama
    5. Idaho


    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. Iowa
    2. NE-02
    3. Arizona
    4. Ohio
    5. North Carolina


    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation?

    No.

    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).

    Zero.

    6. How many women will be in the new Senate?

    21.

    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).

    107.

  5. #5
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    For a good laugh: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermon..._Union_primary

    To entice more participation, I'll make this offer:

    In the event that Hillary Clinton wins, the winning player may claim this alternate achievement with a glamorous headshot instead of the default achievement.

    Last edited by Estquer; 10-15-2016 at 01:03 AM.

  6. #6
    #Illuminati eagle2ch's Avatar
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    ELECTORAL MAP:
      Spoiler:  

    POPULAR VOTE:

    Clinton +4.34%


    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D
    Hawaii: Schatz-D
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D
    Oregon: Wyden-D
    Vermont: Leahy-D
    Washington: Murray-D

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R
    Alaska: Murkowski-R
    Arkansas: Boozman-R
    Georgia: Isakson-R
    Idaho: Crapo-R
    Iowa: Grassley-R
    Kansas: Moran-R
    Kentucky: Paul-R
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R
    S. Carolina: Scott-R
    S. Dakota: Thune-R
    Utah: Lee-R

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Kirk-R

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: Kirkpatrick-D
    Florida: Murphy-D
    Ohio: Portman-R

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R
    Missouri: Kander-D
    N. Carolina: Ross-D
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Ayotte-R
    Pennsylvania: Toomey-R

    CALIFORNIA

    California: Sanchez-D

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Edwards-D
    Pellerin-D

    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin:
    (Example: Republicans +12)

    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D
    Washington: Inslee-D

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Gregg-D
    Missouri: Greitens-R
    N. Carolina: McCrory-R
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D
    Vermont: Minter-D
    W. Virginia: Pritt-M

    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order?
    1. Oregon
    2. Colorado
    3. Washington
    4. Hawaii
    5. California

    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order?
    1. South Carolina
    2. Alabama
    3. Alaska
    4. Kentucky
    5. Mississippi

    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order?
    1. Arizona
    2. Nevada
    3. Ohio
    4. Iowa
    5. Wisconson

    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation?
    No

    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).
    2 (Arizona, Iowa)

    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? (Current: 20; 50 points for correct answer).
    25

    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).
    120



  7. #7
    RTVG Apprentice Brash's Avatar
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  8. #8
    RTVG Apprentice Brash's Avatar
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    Pt 2


    POPULAR VOTE:


    Clinton +25.6%




    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):


    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D*
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*
    Hawaii: Carroll-R
    Maryland: Szeliga-R
    New York: Schumer-D*
    Oregon: Wyden-D*
    Vermont: Milne-R
    Washington: Vance-R


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Crumpton-D
    Alaska: Murkowski-R*
    Arkansas: Boozman-R*
    Georgia: Isakson-R*
    Idaho: Sturgill-D
    Iowa: Judge-D
    Kansas: Wiesner-D
    Kentucky: Gray-D
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*
    S. Carolina: Scott-R*
    S. Dakota: Williams-D
    Utah: Snow-D


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Johnson-R*
    Illinois: Kirk-R*


    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R*
    Florida: Murphy-D
    Ohio: Strickland-D


    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R
    Missouri: Blunt-R*
    N. Carolina: Ross-D
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Ayotte-R*
    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D


    CALIFORNIA


    California: Sanchez-D


    LOUISIANA


    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:


    Lousiana: Duke-R vs. Pellerin-D


    HOUSE:


    Winning party's seat margin:
    Democrats +7


    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):


    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Bryant-R


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Nelson-D
    Utah: Weinholtz-D


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D*


    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A


    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Gregg-D
    Missouri: Koster-D
    N. Carolina: McCrory-R*
    New Hampshire: Sununu-R
    Vermont: Scott-R
    W. Virginia: Justice-D


    BONUS QUESTIONS:


    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.) MA VT PA MO TN


    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.) WA FL AL AK NJ


    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.) KS NE NH LA NV


    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation? (Yes/No. 20 Points). No


    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state). 3 FL NM CT


    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? (Current: 20; 50 points for correct answer). 26


    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer). 110

  9. #9
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    I'm updating the state ratings to best reflect a reasonable status for the presidential election based on major forecasts.

    Utah: Safe Republican --> Tossup
    Alaska: Safe Republican --> Lean Republican
    Maine (District #2): Lean Republican --> Tossup
    Virginia: Tossup --> Lean Democratic
    Wisconsin: Tossup --> Lean Democratic
    Colorado: Tossup --> Lean Democratic
    New Hampshire: Tossup --> Lean Democratic
    New Mexico: Lean Democratic --> Likely Democratic

    Click here to see the state-by-state ratings for this game: http://www.270towin.com/maps/y6z3k

    I'll try to have final race ratings up by Sunday. Potential moves are Iowa to Lean Republican and Arizona to Tossup, pending polling data. I'll also move Utah back to Lean Republican if Evan McMullin (the third party candidate) collapses. However, at this point, McMullin could possibly win the state. The vast number of states in the lean or tossup categories reflects the higher level of uncertainty compared to 2012. The range of possible outcomes are probably from a narrow Trump win to a Clinton blowout based on the best available information.

  10. #10
    Moderator BottleItUp's Avatar
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    Since it's been the better part of the month since I made my predictions, I'm going to revise given the tightening of the presidential race (although new polls out the last two days show Hillary gaining ground back). Estquer's prediction of the race tightening and then un-tightening again and settling between Obama's two victories feels prescient. I may revise more races because I'm really unsure of some of the senate and governor races.



    POPULAR VOTE: Clinton +5.89%

    I think Arizona leans further left than Iowa or Ohio this cycle, and that North Carolina moves to the left of Florida. NE-2 has been the hardest to call because there have been literally zero polls there, but given Clinton's overperformance in polls of Kansas, which has similar demographics to the Nebraska second only less favorable to Clinton, I think it'll narrowly swing towards her.

    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):


    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)

    Colorado: Bennett-D*

    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*

    Hawaii: Schatz-D*

    Maryland: Van Hollen-D

    New York: Schumer-D*

    Oregon: Wyden-D*

    Vermont: Leahy-D*

    Washington: Murray-D*


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)

    Alabama: Shelby-R*

    Alaska: Murkowski-R*

    Arkansas: Boozman-R*

    Georgia: Isakson-R*

    Idaho: Crapo-R*

    Iowa: Grassley-R*

    Kansas: Moran-R*

    Kentucky: Paul-R*

    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*

    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*

    S. Carolina: Scott-R*

    S. Dakota: Thune-R*

    Utah: Lee-R*


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)

    Wisconsin: Feingold-D

    Illinois: Duckworth-D


    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)

    Arizona: McCain-R*

    Florida: Rubio-R*

    Ohio: Portman-R*


    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)

    Indiana: Young-R

    Missouri: Kander-D

    N. Carolina: Ross-D

    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D

    New Hampshire: Hassan-D

    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D


    Florida and Arizona on the Republican side and Wisconsin on the Democratic side will end up far closer than either party would like to believe, but the incumbents will ultimately prevail in the former two and the challenger in the latter. Of the tossup seats, I'm most unsure about Missouri and ESPECIALLY North Carolina. Kander is now running upwards of 10-15 points ahead of Hillary in Missouri and that still may not be enough; black turnout in North Carolina being down may **** Ross over. Pennsylvania polls have shown McGinty running even with Clinton in Pennsylvania now, which is fantastic for her, while Clinton is going to run up too large of a margin in Nevada and New Hampshire for Heck and Ayotte to prevail (I'm going based on polls for New Hampshire and early voting data for Nevada). I have a bad feeling Bayh is going to blow Indiana.

    CALIFORNIA


    California: Harris-D


    LOUISIANA


    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:


    Lousiana: Kennedy-R vs. Campbell-D Believe it or not given the trainwreck this race has been, I'm actually reasonably sure about this prediction. Kennedy is a sure-thing, but Campbell could be toppled at the last minute by Fayard or Boustany (more likely Fayard).


    HOUSE:


    Winning party's seat margin: Republicans +7 (this prediction aligns with Democrats winning the nationwide house ballot by about 3 points, which seems about right to me.)

    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):


    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)

    Delaware: Carney-D

    Oregon: Brown-D*

    Washington: Inslee-D*


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)

    N. Dakota: Burgum-R

    Utah: Herbert-R*


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)

    Montana: Bullock-D*


    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)

    N/A


    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)

    Indiana: Gregg-D

    Missouri: Koster-D

    N. Carolina: Cooper-D

    New Hampshire: Ostern-D

    Vermont: Scott-R

    W. Virginia: Justice-D -- there's been literally zero polling in this race since MAY for some reason


    BONUS QUESTIONS:


    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    1. DC 2. Hawaii 3. Maryland 4. Vermont 5. California

    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    1. NE-3 2. Wyoming 3. West Virginia 4. Oklahoma 5. Alabama

    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    1. Arizona 2. NE-2 3. ME-2 4. Ohio 5. Iowa

    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation? (Yes/No. 20 Points).
    No


    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).
    2 - Arizona & NE-2


    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? (Current: 20; 50 points for correct answer).
    23

    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).
    110
    Last edited by BottleItUp; 11-03-2016 at 12:56 PM.

  11. #11
    Won't be anything left... Swim4life107's Avatar
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    Some thoughts:
    -Early voting is looking way better in NV/FL/NC than polls suggest. She's on track to win NV by 5. NC by 5-6. Florida by 2.
    -NH basically shows a tie but I cannot fundamentally see how that state flips. Jeanne Shaheen won in 2014 fairly safely when the nation was a complete red wash. The idea that it is gonna flip back in a more D electorate is odd.
    -I wanted to put ME-02 to Hillbot but stupid 538 prevented me from doing such.
    -I'm kinda bullish on Hillary in AZ because of the Latino turnout in FL and NV. I still think we are a few elections away from flipping that state.
    -I still just cannot process how Trump seems likely to win such a big swing state like Ohio. I think Hillary might win Ohio in a squeaker but not enough to put my money where my mouth is. The polling seems to be trending back to her, the early voting looks decent for her, and the fact that she's spending so much time there is telling that things look good (and by that logic her and Obama spending time in Michigan is kinda worrisome but not really). I might change this state eventually.
    -Iowa is the only real swing state that I feel is completely out of reach (as I wrote this all up, a poll was released with Hillary winning Iowa lol) . I still am not feeling it unless Wccats has a side bar with his entire state and delivers us from evil. PLZ!!!

    POPULAR VOTE:
    Clinton +5.01%

    With all the volatility in the polling I've always thought Hillary was going to end up winning by 5. Safely between the McCain/Romney margins.

    Senate


    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)

    Colorado: Bennett-D*

    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*

    Hawaii: Schatz-D*

    Maryland: Van Hollen-D

    New York: Schumer-D*

    Oregon: Wyden-D*

    Vermont: Leahy-D*

    Washington: Murray-D*


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)

    Alabama: Shelby-R*

    Alaska: Murkowski-R*

    Arkansas: Boozman-R*

    Georgia: Isakson-R*

    Idaho: Crapo-R*

    Iowa: Grassley-R*

    Kansas: Moran-R*

    Kentucky: Paul-R*

    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*

    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*

    S. Carolina: Scott-R*

    S. Dakota: Thune-R*

    Utah: Lee-R*


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)

    Wisconsin: Feingold-D

    Illinois: Duckworth-D


    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)

    Arizona: McCain-R*

    Florida: Rubio-R*

    Ohio: Portman-R*

    Absolutely infuriating the DNC ****ed Ohio and Florida up so horribly.



    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)

    Indiana: Young-R
    Never understood why this was so winnable for the Dems given the fundamentals of Indiana.


    Missouri: Blunt-R
    I just don't buy Missouri is gonna have 2 Democratic Senators.


    N. Carolina: Ross-D
    If those NC early voting numbers are even remotely true. Ross is getting taken along for the ride on the coattails of Hillbot. God Bless it and God Bless America.


    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D

    New Hampshire: Hassan-D

    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D

    LOUISIANA

    Kennedy vs Campbell

    CALIFORNIA

    Miss Harris

    I feel the worst the Democrats can do is get 50 seats which is all we really need. Still they missed a huge opportunity to build up a nice lead. I believe in Life, Liberty, and all the rest of it and we desperately need a D-Senate. We only really need them so we can usher in new Supreme Court justices after the mass exodus of the old liberal hags. We can also hope mother nature gives us an early xmas gift with 1 more cuntservative judge croaking...........or 2....or 3 <3!!!


    HOUSE OF CUNTSENTATIVES

    I'm so pissed off the DNC did such an awful job recruiting people for house races. They actually had a chance to pounce on the house as they have the numbers needed to squeak this out, but they rolled over before they found out if they had a chance. Now, we basically are going to have obstructionist twunts running our government for 4 more years. Pray for better planning in 2020 so we can give Pelosi her job back, even though she's going to be like 105 by then <3.

    GOP +15

    CUNTNORS

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Inslee-D*


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R*


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D*

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Holcomb-R
    Missouri: Koster-D
    N. Carolina: Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D
    Vermont: Scott-R
    W. Virginia: Justice-D


    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. DC
    2. Hawaii
    3. Vermont
    4. California
    5. Massachusetts


    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. NE-03
    2. Wyoming
    3. Oklahoma
    4. Idaho
    5. West Virginia


    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. Ohio
    2. Arizona
    3. Iowa
    4. Florida
    5. NE-02


    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation?

    Hell. No.

    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).

    0

    6. How many women will be in the new Senate?

    22

    I know I predicted 23 but I'm hedging against the fact that between Ross and Cortez, one might lose.

    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).

    110



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    Last edited by Swim4life107; 11-05-2016 at 05:36 PM.


  12. #12
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    Updating my picks!

    ELECTORAL MAP (paste below):

      Spoiler:  


    Not a lot has changed for me since my previous mid-October map. I've flipped Ohio to Trump and ME-02 to Clinton. I considered flipping North Carolina as well but I feel like it is demographically shifting toward democrats. Can I just say that I'm glad that Ohio is moving away from its swing state status? It's such an awful, bland state.

    I feel pretty confident that Hillbot will still win this. I think the only real chance there is of Trump winning is if she collapses across the midwest unexpectedly and loses some combination of Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Even if she does, she might still get bailed out by Florida and North Carolina so it's hard to imagine this happening.


    POPULAR VOTE:

    Clinton +4.76%

    I've downgraded this a bit since Trump seems to have strengthened his popular vote in the red states where he had previously lagged *tremendously*.


    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D*
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*
    Hawaii: Schatz-D*
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D*
    Oregon: Wyden-D*
    Vermont: Leahy-D*
    Washington: Murray-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R*
    Alaska: Murkowski-R*
    Arkansas: Boozman-R*
    Georgia: Isakson-R*
    Idaho: Crapo-R*
    Iowa: Grassley-R*
    Kansas: Moran-R*
    Kentucky: Paul-R*
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*
    S. Carolina: Scott-R*
    S. Dakota: Thune-R*
    Utah: Lee-R*


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Duckworth-D


    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R*
    Florida: Rubio-R*
    Ohio: Portman-R*


    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R
    Missouri: Kander-D
    N. Carolina: Ross-D
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D


    We can't have two Democratic senators from Indiana because... Evan sucks!

    Of the tossup seats, I feel like Indiana and Missouri are the most unnatural fits for a democrat to win. A lot of that stems from the fact that there is no democrat turnout machinery in these states to help drag the democrats across the finish line. Each of them are going to have to massively outperform Hillbot เ la Heitkamp, Tester, and Donnelly in 2012.

    What that means is that you need a high quality candidate. Evan Bayh has proven to be a bad candidate for 2016, regardless of his past success. Kander to me fits the profile of a local democrat who is good enough to outrun the republican vortex of a red state. The x-factor is incumbency in a lot of these races. Have Kander, Ross, and Hassan all given enough reasons to throw out Blunt, Burr, and Ayotte? I guess we'll see.

    Of the ones I have for democrats, I feel like one of them is going to lose but I'm not sure which. So I decided to be optimistic and hope for the best.

    CALIFORNIA

    California: Harris-D

    Who is Loretta Sanchez? I live here and I have not seen a single Senate ad. Actually, I've seen mostly state senate and ballot proposition ads.

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Lousiana: Kennedy-R and Fayard-D

    It feels like pretty much a tossup between Fayard and Campbell for that second spot. Regardless, Kennedy will be the next senator from Louisiana. The only chance for an upset is if Campbell and Fayard accidentally make the top two in a (Trainwreck).

    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin: Republicans +16?

    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Inslee-D*


    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R*


    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D*

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Holcomb-R
    Missouri: Koster-D
    N. Carolina: Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D
    Vermont: Scott-R
    W. Virginia: Justice-D


    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. DC
    2. Hawaii
    3. Maryland
    4. California
    5. Vermont


    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. NE-03
    2. Wyoming
    3. Oklahoma
    4. Alabama
    5. West Virginia


    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)

    1. North Carolina
    2. Ohio
    3. Arizona
    4. Florida
    5. NE-02


    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation?

    No.

    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).

    Zero.

    6. How many women will be in the new Senate?

    21.

    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).

    107.

  13. #13
    (っ◔◡◔)っ Nyan's Avatar
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    ELECTORAL MAP (paste below):



    POPULAR VOTE: Clinton +3.88%


    For the popular vote, all you have to do is predict the Clinton or Trump margin of victory to the nearest hundredth of a percent (example: Trump +0.56% or Clinton +15.13%)

    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D*
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*
    Hawaii: Schatz-D*
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D*
    Oregon: Wyden-D*
    Vermont: Leahy-D*
    Washington: Murray-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R*
    Alaska: Murkowski-R*
    Arkansas: Boozman-R*
    Georgia: Isakson-R*
    Idaho: Crapo-R*
    Iowa: Grassley-R*
    Kansas: Moran-R*
    Kentucky: Paul-R*
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*
    S. Carolina: Scott-R*
    S. Dakota: Thune-R*
    Utah: Lee-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Duckworth-D

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R*
    Florida: Rubio-R*
    Ohio: Portman-R*

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R
    Missouri: Blunt-R*
    N. Carolina: Burr-R*
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D

    CALIFORNIA

    California: Harris-D

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Campbell-D and Kennedy-R

    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin:
    Republicans +33

    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Inslee-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D*

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Holcomb-R
    Missouri: Koster-D
    N. Carolina: McCrory-R*
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D
    Vermont: Minter-D
    W. Virginia: Justice-D

    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order?
    1. DC
    2. Vermont
    3. Maryland
    4. Hawaii
    5. Massachusetts


    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order?
    1. NE-03
    2. Wyoming
    3. West Virginia
    4. Oklahoma
    5. North Dakota


    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order?
    1. ME-02
    2. North Carolina
    3. Florida
    4. Nevada
    5. Ohio

    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation? No
    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? Zero
    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? 21
    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? 105
    Last edited by Nyan; 11-07-2016 at 06:16 PM.

  14. #14
    Won't be anything left... Swim4life107's Avatar
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    I am all here for that train wreck scenario where the top 2 in Louisiana are Democrat and they are forced to have a democratic senator. I swear, the DNC should do what they do on Survivor, have all girls vote one way and all guys vote the other way (which would actually fail because men suck and vote Republicunt).


  15. #15
    Moderator BottleItUp's Avatar
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    My final changes:


    I flipped Ohio blue and NE-2 and Arizona red. High quality polls coming out of Ohio the past two or three days have the state tied; given that senate and state polls have usually lagged about a week behind national poll trends at all points this cycle, my bet is that the rebound Clinton has had in national polls just hasn't hit state level data but will manifest itself on election day. As a result, I feel more confident about North Carolina and think Ohio will be the closest this cycle, ultimately coming up blue. I flipped Arizona because I think I was a bit bullish and it's a cycle too soon, still, most likely; NE-2 is too red this time.


    Winning party's seat margin: Republicans +11
    I think I was a too bullish on Dems' House chances.

    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order? (20 points per correct answer, 50 points if it is also in the correct place on the list.)
    1. Ohio 2. Arizona 3. ME-2 4. Florida 5. Iowa

    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).
    1 - Ohio

  16. #16
    ELECTORAL MAP:


    POPULAR VOTE:
    Clinton: 4.88%

    SENATE:
    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS:
    Colorado: Bennett-D*
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*
    Hawaii: Schatz-D*
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D*
    Oregon: Wyden-D*
    Vermont: Leahy-D*
    Washington: Murray-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS:
    Alabama: Shelby-R*
    Alaska: Murkowski-R*
    Arkansas: Boozman-R*
    Georgia: Isakson-R*
    Idaho: Crapo-R*
    Iowa: Grassley-R*
    Kansas: Moran-R*
    Kentucky: Paul-R*
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*
    S. Carolina: Scott-R*
    S. Dakota: Thune-R*
    Utah: Lee-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS:
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Duckworth-D

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS:
    Arizona: McCain-R*
    Florida: Rubio-R*
    Ohio: Portman-R*

    TOSSUP SEATS:
    Indiana: Bayh-D
    Missouri: Kander-D
    N. Carolina: Burr-R*
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D

    CALIFORNIA:
    California: Harris-D

    LOUISIANA:
    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:
    Campbell-D vs. Kennedy-R

    HOUSE:
    Republicans +16

    GOVERNORS:
    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS:
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Inslee-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS:
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS:
    Montana: Bullock-D*

    TOSSUP SEATS:
    Indiana: Gregg-D
    Missouri: Greitens-R
    N. Carolina: Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D
    Vermont: Scott-R
    W. Virginia: Cole-R

    BONUS QUESTIONS:
    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order?
    DC > Vermont > Maryland > Hawaii > Massachusetts
    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order?
    NE 3rd > Wyoming > West Virginia > Oklahoma > Alabama
    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order?
    Florida > North Carolina > Nevada > Ohio > Arizona
    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation?
    No
    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be?
    Zero
    6. How many women will be in the new Senate?
    22
    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives?
    104



  17. #17
    Queen of Thorns Estquer's Avatar
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    Everyone's predictions lock at noon E.S.T. (in just under 3 hours). If you have any last minute insider info, now would be the time to announce it!

  18. #18
    (っ◔◡◔)っ Nyan's Avatar
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    UPDATE

    ELECTORAL MAP (paste below):




    (Flipping ME-02 back to Clinton; leaving everything else the same)


    POPULAR VOTE: Clinton +3.96%


    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D*
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*
    Hawaii: Schatz-D*
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D*
    Oregon: Wyden-D*
    Vermont: Leahy-D*
    Washington: Murray-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R*
    Alaska: Murkowski-R*
    Arkansas: Boozman-R*
    Georgia: Isakson-R*
    Idaho: Crapo-R*
    Iowa: Grassley-R*
    Kansas: Moran-R*
    Kentucky: Paul-R*
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*
    S. Carolina: Scott-R*
    S. Dakota: Thune-R*
    Utah: Lee-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Duckworth-D

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R*
    Florida: Rubio-R*
    Ohio: Portman-R*

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R
    Missouri: Blunt-R*
    N. Carolina: Burr-R*
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D

    CALIFORNIA

    California: Harris-D

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Campbell-D and Kennedy-R

    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin:
    Republicans +19

    (Republicans +33 seems a bit too extravagant in hindsight)


    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Inslee-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D*

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Gregg-D
    Missouri: Greitens-R
    N. Carolina: Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Sununu-R
    Vermont: Minter-D
    W. Virginia: Justice-D

    (Switched a lot of these around because I found more #reliable sources)


    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order?
    1. DC
    2. Vermont
    3. Maryland
    4. Hawaii
    5. Massachusetts


    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order?
    1. NE-03
    2. Wyoming
    3. West Virginia
    4. Oklahoma
    5. North Dakota


    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order?
    1. ME-02
    2. Florida
    3. North Carolina
    4. Nevada
    5. Ohio

    (Flipping Florida and North Carolina since North Carolina is leaning more toward Clinton now)

    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation? No
    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? Zero
    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? 21
    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? 104

    (Fixing # of women in new House down one - from previous prediction - since the House is likely to be more Republican)

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