Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 19 to 36 of 36

Thread: 2016 Election Prediction

  1. #19
    Ho-Admin Estquer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    Yekaterinburg
    Posts
    16,417

    Achievements

    Not 538 switching to my exact map at the last minute. They better be right.

    I just got home from casting my real-life eviction vote. I can report that turnout in Davis, California is... irrelevant!

  2. #20
    ELECTORAL MAP:

    POPULAR VOTE:

    Clinton +5.14%


    SENATE (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D
    Hawaii: Schatz-D
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D
    Oregon: Wyden-D
    Vermont: Leahy-D
    Washington: Murray-D

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R
    Alaska: Murkowski-R
    Arkansas: Boozman-R
    Georgia: Isakson-R
    Idaho: Crapo-R
    Iowa: Grassley-R
    Kansas: Moran-R
    Kentucky: Paul-R
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R
    S. Carolina: Scott-R
    S. Dakota: Thune-R
    Utah: Lee-R

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Kirk-R

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: Kirkpatrick-D
    Florida: Murphy-D
    Ohio: Portman-R

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R
    Missouri: Kander-D
    N. Carolina: Ross-D
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Ayotte-R
    Pennsylvania: Toomey-R

    CALIFORNIA

    California: Harris-D

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Boustany-R vs. Campbell-D

    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin:
    (Example: Republicans +12)

    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D
    Washington: Inslee-D

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Gregg-D
    Missouri: Greitens-R
    N. Carolina: McCrory-R
    New Hampshire: Van Ostern-D
    Vermont: Minter-D
    W. Virginia: Pritt-M

    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order?
    1. DC
    2. Maryland
    3. Vermont
    4. California
    5. Hawaii


    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order?
    1. South Carolina
    2. Alabama
    3. Alaska
    4. Kentucky
    5. Mississippi

    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order?
    1. Ohio
    2. Nevada
    3. NH
    4. Iowa
    5. Wisconson

    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation?
    No

    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? (20 Points for correct number; 50 points for naming each correct state).
    2 (Arizona, Florida)

    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? (Current: 20; 50 points for correct answer).
    30

    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? (Current: 104; 50 points for correct answer).
    124




  3. #21
    Moderator BottleItUp's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    New Orleans
    Posts
    13,938

    Achievements

    i'm betting on a stronger night for Democrats nationally than most poll aggregates are for a number of reasons:
    1. National polls have been trending towards her and they may not have picked up the full scale of that shift
    2. Early voting tallies are more favorable to Hillary than the polls themselves have been, especially in Nevada and North Carolina
    3. The state level polls, senate polls and generic congressional ballot have consistently lagged a week or so behind trends in the national polls. The last minute shift back to Hillary hasn't been picked up yet in these but I'm betting that today it will be

  4. #22
    (っ◔◡◔)っ Nyan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    10,150

    Achievements

    UPDATE-02

    ELECTORAL MAP:




    (Flipping ME-02 back to Clinton; leaving everything else the same)


    POPULAR VOTE: Clinton +3.96%


    SENATE:

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Colorado: Bennett-D*
    Connecticut: Blumenthal-D*
    Hawaii: Schatz-D*
    Maryland: Van Hollen-D
    New York: Schumer-D*
    Oregon: Wyden-D*
    Vermont: Leahy-D*
    Washington: Murray-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    Alabama: Shelby-R*
    Alaska: Murkowski-R*
    Arkansas: Boozman-R*
    Georgia: Isakson-R*
    Idaho: Crapo-R*
    Iowa: Grassley-R*
    Kansas: Moran-R*
    Kentucky: Paul-R*
    N. Dakota: Hoeven-R*
    Oklahoma: Lankford-R*
    S. Carolina: Scott-R*
    S. Dakota: Thune-R*
    Utah: Lee-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Wisconsin: Feingold-D
    Illinois: Duckworth-D

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    Arizona: McCain-R*
    Florida: Rubio-R*
    Ohio: Portman-R*

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Young-R
    Missouri: Blunt-R*
    N. Carolina: Burr-R*
    Nevada: Cortez-Masto-D
    New Hampshire: Hassan-D
    Pennsylvania: McGinty-D

    CALIFORNIA

    California: Harris-D

    LOUISIANA

    Name the top two out of these twenty-four choices:

    Campbell-D and Kennedy-R

    HOUSE:

    Winning party's seat margin:
    Republicans +19

    (Republicans +33 seems a bit too extravagant in hindsight)


    GOVERNORS (Delete the losers and only leave your winner prediction):

    SAFE/LIKELY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (5 Points)
    Delaware: Carney-D
    Oregon: Brown-D*
    Washington: Inslee-D*

    SAFE/LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS (5 Points)
    N. Dakota: Burgum-R
    Utah: Herbert-R*

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC SEATS (15 Points)
    Montana: Bullock-D*

    LEAN REPUBLICAN SEATS (15 Points)
    N/A

    TOSSUP SEATS (25 Points)
    Indiana: Gregg-D
    Missouri: Greitens-R
    N. Carolina: Cooper-D
    New Hampshire: Sununu-R
    Vermont: Minter-D
    W. Virginia: Justice-D

    (Switched a lot of these around because I found more #reliable sources)


    BONUS QUESTIONS:

    1. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Clinton by the widest margin, in order?
    1. DC
    2. Vermont
    3. Maryland
    4. Hawaii
    5. Massachusetts


    2. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will vote for Trump by the widest margin, in order?
    1. NE-03
    2. Wyoming
    3. West Virginia
    4. Oklahoma
    5. North Dakota


    3. Which five jurisdictions (states, DC, districts in ME or NE) will have the closest presidential margin, in order?
    1. ME-02
    2. Florida
    3. North Carolina
    4. Nevada
    5. NE-02

    (Flipping Florida and North Carolina since North Carolina is leaning more toward Clinton now)

    4. In the event of a tie in the senate (50-50), will any senators switch their party affiliation? No
    5. How many jurisdictions will require a recount for the presidential election, and which ones will it be? Zero
    6. How many women will be in the new Senate? 21
    7. How many women will be in the new House of Representatives? 104

    (Fixing # of women in new House down one - from previous prediction - since the House is likely to be more Republican)


    Candice x Rosie

  5. #23
    Cunti Booti CupidStunt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Gender
    Female
    Location
    Bitter Bitch Lane
    Posts
    28,187

    Achievements

    Quote Originally Posted by Estquer View Post
    Not 538 switching to my exact map at the last minute. They better be right.

    I just got home from casting my real-life eviction vote. I can report that turnout in Davis, California is... irrelevant!
    Never heard of Davis California so I googled it
    Stand out's from my google search :
    Most populous city in YOLO county.
    turkeys take over the town


    whet.


  6. #24
    Ho-Admin Estquer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    Yekaterinburg
    Posts
    16,417

    Achievements

    The demonic turkey is actually a serious problem. There are signs all over town warning people about how to successfully interact with it.

  7. #25
    Cunti Booti CupidStunt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Gender
    Female
    Location
    Bitter Bitch Lane
    Posts
    28,187

    Achievements



  8. #26
    THIS IS A MESS



  9. #27
    (っ◔◡◔)っ Nyan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    10,150

    Achievements



    I wish I predicted that the Republicans will lead Democrats by FIFTY EIGHT seats in the House. Wtf is happening?


    Candice x Rosie

  10. #28
    (っ◔◡◔)っ Nyan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    10,150

    Achievements

    Quote Originally Posted by Estquer View Post
    For a good laugh: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermon..._Union_primary

    To entice more participation, I'll make this offer:

    In the event that Hillary Clinton wins, the winning player may claim this alternate achievement with a glamorous headshot instead of the default achievement.

    RIP.


    Candice x Rosie

  11. #29
    Won't be anything left... Swim4life107's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    8,051

    Achievements

    This all feels like somebody else's life. How does somebody get more votes than her opponent TWICE and lose the presidency.....TWICE?

    I'm happy for Cortez, Duckworth, and Hassan. Even with Hassan, it's annoying that the only republicans that continue to get punished are the only ones left who are moderate and capable of bi-partisianship.

    I've literally never been more gutted in my entire life. Everything I value has been completely **** on just because of some middle white class anxiety.


  12. #30
    Moderator BottleItUp's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    New Orleans
    Posts
    13,938

    Achievements

    Quote Originally Posted by Swim4life107 View Post
    This all feels like somebody else's life. How does somebody get more votes than her opponent TWICE and lose the presidency.....TWICE?

    I'm happy for Cortez, Duckworth, and Hassan. Even with Hassan, it's annoying that the only republicans that continue to get punished are the only ones left who are moderate and capable of bi-partisianship.

    I've literally never been more gutted in my entire life. Everything I value has been completely **** on just because of some middle white class anxiety.
    Pretty much all of that. This is so surreal in the worst way. Her popular vote win is the ultimate kick in the balls.

  13. #31
    Ho-Admin Estquer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    Yekaterinburg
    Posts
    16,417

    Achievements

    Does anyone know the correct answer for number of women in the House of Reps? I'm having trouble finding it. Thanks.

    Edit: Looks like the current number that I put for the question isn't even right. I think I'll just throw this one out.

  14. #32
    RTVG Idol blaase's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    4,303
    It's a sad day but lets look on the bright side , this will get democrats more riled up for 2020 to hopefully support a great candidate that is smart charismatic and that people respect and will make Trump look like the doofus he is.
    With Clinton as president her haters would get even more riled up and, we would have been likely headed to a Rubio/Cruz/Pence/Ryan Presidency in four years, I'd rather suffer with doofus Trump now than suffer in 2020-2024 with those other dumbasses..

  15. #33
    (っ◔◡◔)っ Nyan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    10,150

    Achievements

    Quote Originally Posted by Estquer View Post
    Does anyone know the correct answer for number of women in the House of Reps? I'm having trouble finding it. Thanks.

    Edit: Looks like the current number that I put for the question isn't even right. I think I'll just throw this one out.
    88

    https://pressgallery.house.gov/membe...graphics/women


    Candice x Rosie

  16. #34
    Ho-Admin Estquer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    Yekaterinburg
    Posts
    16,417

    Achievements

    WINNER ANNOUNCEMENT

    Alright! It's over and there are no outstanding races that feel likely to change. The winner prevailed by a convincing margin so I don't feel the need to drag things out further.

    There aren't really any TRUE winners of the 2016 Election, but I hope that these results will at least brighten one person's day. The winner is...

      Spoiler:  
    • • •
      Spoiler:  
    • • •
      Spoiler:  
    • • •
      Spoiler:  
    Nyan!

    Congratulations, Nyan! I'm really happy for you because you put a lot of thought into your picks. You ended up being the least wrong. This is not meant to disparage your performance, but just a recognition that the polls and predictions were all basically a dumpster fire. To your credit, your most impressive call was getting the five Trumpiest states exactly correct in the perfect order. You also had the best Senate picks!

    I wish election night could have been more fun for people who aren't white supremacists, but sometimes we don't have the America we want... we have the America we deserve.

    Thanks so much everyone for playing! I hope to see you all back again for the 2018 Midterms, where we will get to see if the Republicans reach a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate. (:

    SCORES

    1. Nyan: 1759
    2. Swim4life107: 1691
    -- Estquer: 1624
    3. SoandSo: 1581
    4. BottleItUp: 1444
    5. Mr.NickiMinaj: 1251
    6. Brash: 1182
    7. eagle2ch: 841

    SCORECARD:




  17. #35
    (っ◔◡◔)っ Nyan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    10,150

    Achievements

    Thank you for hosting this, Estquer. I'm appreciative to have won, though a huge Clinton and simultaneous Bottle win would have probably been more pleasing. :/


    Candice x Rosie

  18. #36
    Won't be anything left... Swim4life107's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Gender
    Male
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    8,051

    Achievements

    Quote Originally Posted by BottleItUp View Post
    Pretty much all of that. This is so surreal in the worst way. Her popular vote win is the ultimate kick in the balls.
    I can't decide if that's the ultimate sting, or it's the silver lining. America spoke. Geography veto'd.

    I've never had the rug completely pulled from underneath me like this. I am absolutely shaken to my core. Yesterday, I woke with glee for the first real time in years. We were FINALLY going to get to win. Today, I woke up feeling like maybe this is the last day I should wake up. All in 24 hours. It's amazing how fragile everything really is. Then on top of it I had to go to a Tax Conference and be surrounded by a bunch of middle aged white men absolutely gloat and **** on everything I love and value right in front of my ****ing face. I was absolutely crawling out of my skin. It really sucks to be the "other." Even worse when nobody realizes you are the "other" and you are a fly on the wall to all of it.

    I've had my head in the sand for years. I've been shielded by progressive educational institutions my whole life and I just assumed everyone was open minded (naturally, there were still plenty of ****ty people). Now that I am working adult and I am out in Middle America. I see how everyone is like and it just baffles me. I thought awful endings were reserved for American Idol. Nope, they happen in real life too.


Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •